Revisiting Preseason Washington Basketball Player Projections
Every year I put my reputation on the line by listing the exact per game stat line that I expect from every member of the Husky roster. It’s a fun exercise every fall and also leads to this moment in the spring when I have the chance to review how I did.
Normally I would put this piece out in a few weeks but it was a disappointing year where Washington didn’t even qualify for their conference tournament which means the season is over earlier than it normally would be. Nonetheless, it’s instructive to look at how different things changed from the preseason to figure out what went wrong for Washington.
G Tyree Ihenacho (5th year)
Projected Stats: 20.0 min, 8.2 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.4 to, 44.5/30.9/62.5% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 20.8 min, 3.2 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.2 to, 52.2/13.3/62.5% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“As the last pickup to the roster it might seem like Ihenacho isn’t destined for major playing time but I think he might be the favorite to end up the starting point guard. It’s admittedly a toss up between Ihenacho and Kortright…I think Ihenacho has a little more athleticism and juice defensively so I’m going to give him the starting nod…”
I’m going to go ahead and take a victory lap on this one. Ihenacho didn’t shoot the ball as much as I thought he would and he was way worse from 3-point range than I could have imagined. But everything else is almost identical on a per game basis. In the end I managed to figure out the divide between Ihenacho and Kortright almost perfectly.
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G Luis Kortright (5th year)
Projected Stats: 16.0 min, 4.8 pts, 2.0 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.1 to, 48.8/29.2/64.8% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 17.3 min, 4.9 pts, 1.9 reb, 1.8 ast, 0.9 to, 44.9/21.4/53.3% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“It’s incredibly difficult to try to determine who will play more minutes between Kortright and Ihenacho. If I can end up being correct in their combined stats then I’ll call that a win as neither is a sure thing.”
Once again, I’m going to take credit for this one given how close I was on all of the per game totals. Kortright shot worse than I projected from every part of the floor but his total scoring was where I expected it to be. What I didn’t expect of course is that Kortright would end up getting suspended indefinitely in the back half of the season and only play 17 total games.
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G Zoom Diallo (1st Year)
Projected Stats: 11.0 min, 4.0 pts, 0.8 reb, 1.0 ast, 0.8 to, 41.7/31.6%/68.2% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 25.2 min, 11.1 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.7 ast, 2.1 to, 51.0/18.2%/71.9% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“If Zoom beats out Ihenacho and Kortright for playing time it will be because his 3-point shot is falling from day one. It’s more likely though that he comes off the bench and tries to play his way increasingly into the rotation as the season goes along and he adjusts to the speed of the college game.”
I always underestimate freshmen. It’s my weakness. It turns out that Zoom did mostly come off the bench to start the season before clearly passing first Kortright and then Ihenacho in the rotation. It wasn’t because of his shooting though so I get a big fat L on that one. Zoom made up for it by being a lot more efficient from 2-point range than I expected and taking on true point guard duties. If you scale up my per game estimates by the 227% playing time increase that Zoom actually received then my guess would’ve been 9.1 pts, 1.8 reb, 2.3 ast. That’s closer to reality but Zoom still surpassed those numbers. Of course, so did his turnover total.
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G DJ Davis (5th year)
Projected Stats: 33.0 min, 14.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.7 to, 50.7/37.3/88.2% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 23.6 min, 8.7 pts, 1.3 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.1 to, 41.0/35.2/90.2% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“Davis is the closest thing to a proven shooter that there is on this roster which means he is going to play and play a lot…Davis has a great shot at putting up 15 points per game this season and should be the clear favorite to end up the 2nd leading scorer.”
This combined with Kortright’s suspension is how Zoom was able to get so many more minutes than I was expecting. I really thought that Davis was going to end up being the 2nd best player on this team. Instead, he started the season in a massive slump and took the rest of the year to climb back out of it. His conference play-only numbers are pretty much identical with the shooting splits I expected (48/38/97%) but the whole season counts and it was on much lower usage than I expected. It didn’t help that Davis also really struggled whenever coach Sprinkle tried to use him as a primary ball handler. If you’re looking for a reason why UW underachieved this year, getting the version of Davis we got versus what I forecasted is a big part of it.
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G Jase Butler (1st year)
Projected Stats: Not a part of the rotation
Actual Stats: 10.7 min, 1.9 pts, 1.4 reb, 0.7 ast, 0.1 to, 25.0/28.6/60.0% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“It certainly can happen that a lower rated player ends up better right from the get go than a higher rated one at the same position…But the safe money is that Zoom has a more impactful year. And in a season where due to the numbers game I don’t think both are going to see the court unless there’s an injury, that means Butler is the odd man out.”
Throughout the non-conference slate it looked like Butler may be a massive steal. His +/- numbers suggested the team was way better with him on the court even if the box score didn’t reflect it. Butler though fell out of the rotation beginning with B1G play and went 0/11 from the field with 2 total rebounds and 0 assists across 52 minutes the rest of the way. Even as the 5th option, that’s not good. I still have hope that Butler could be a nice piece but it was rough 2nd half of the year.
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G Mekhi Mason (3rd year)
Projected Stats: 30.0 min, 10.8 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.8 ast, 0.9 stl, 43.5/34.4/64.0% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 24.4 min, 9.9 pts, 2.1 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.0 stl, 45.7/40.2/72.7% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“It seems likely that Mason gets the starting gig in that small forward role with the chance he shifts to the 2 when UW plays bigger. Mason is the least willing passer of Washington’s guards and also the tallest so he should nominally be the 3 most of the time and should shoot better getting to play off the ball much more often. It’s likely that Mason won’t get as many shots as he did with Rice but they should be better quality so his efficiency might not fall off even though the level of competition will increase.”
I ended up backing into this one being mostly correct. Mason was extremely up and down for much of the year but came alive while starting the final 11 games of the year. During that stretch he averaged 13.7 ppg on 46% 3-point shooting while playing improved defense. Basically looking like the best version of what I expected from DJ Davis. He played much more of an off-ball shooter role than he did at Rice which caused me to underestimate his assists by quite a bit but it’s hard to argue with the results.
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SF Tyler Harris (2nd year)
Projected Stats: 20.0 min, 6.7 pts, 4.2 reb, 0.6 stl, 0.5 blk, 48.6/32.3/64.2% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 30.7 min, 11.8 pts, 5.0 reb, 0.9 stl, 1.1 blk, 49.1/49.4/69.4% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“If there’s an X factor on this year’s team then it’s likely Harris…My guess is that Harris is one of the first players off the bench and might be a part of closing lineups depending on the matchup but falls just short of a starting spot. He should still play plenty when healthy and if he hits his ceiling then it makes the Huskies a legitimate tournament contender. But given his injury history I’m only projecting him to play 20 games and will be happy if he sees the court more.”
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The injury history never came back to bite Harris until he missed the 2nd to last game of the year with an ankle injury but returned for the finale. He also ended up being one of UW’s more durable players finishing just behind Great Osobor in total minutes. I expected Harris to improve as a 3-point shooter after making just 29.5% as a freshman but shot up to finishing 2nd in the country at nearly 50%. That’s not sustainable long-term but is a big part of why he was a way better player than I expected.
It’s worth noting that the +/- advanced stats weren’t very high on Harris. He still is prone to fouling jump shooters at a disproportionate rate and is a black hole as a passer. Those are the kind of things that conventional stats don’t capture. But it’s easy to understand why Sprinkle had trouble keeping Harris off the court with his length and shooting and I still think he has big upside.
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F Christian King (2nd year)
Max’s Projected Stats: Not a part of the rotation
Actual Stats: 8.9 min, 2.5 pts, 1.6 reb, 50.0/38.5/77.8% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“This year though there aren’t a lot of players on the roster with King’s combination of length and theoretical shooting (I say theoretical because he hasn’t played yet)…It wouldn’t shock me to see King crack the rotation but it’s a safer bet to think that he’ll once again fall by the wayside until we know what the playing distribution will actually look like.”
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Similar to Butler, there was a point in time when it seemed that King might be able to breakthrough and make the long-term rotation. But he played just 62 minutes in UW’s 18 conference games mostly during blowouts to make me correct. Sprinkle often used King as a power forward based on UW’s depth which probably isn’t his best spot but he was a better rebounder/shot blocker than I expected. King showed enough potential that it would be nice to keep him on the roster but it wouldn’t shock me if he transferred to a mid-major and became a really good player with more responsibility.
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F/C Great Osobor (5th year)
Projected Stats: 35.0 min, 18.3 pts, 9.3 reb, 3.1 ast, 3.7 to, 1.4 stl, 1.4 blk, 55.6/26.8/67.3% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 31.2 min, 14.8 pts, 8.0 reb, 3.4 ast, 3.3 to, 1.9 stl, 0.5 blk, 55.6/26.8/67.3% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“There’s no question that expectations are sky high for Osobor at Washington. He made the preseason all-conference team and was Andy Katz’s pick for Big Ten player of the year. Last year Osobor was the best player on a top-50 team nationally and there’s no reason it can’t happen again if things fall into place for the Huskies…The good news for Osobor is that he’s a good and willing passer which means he’ll be able to kick it out to open shooters on the perimeter. But if those shooters only make 30% of their attempts then it will still lead to a bogged down offense.”
If I told you in the preseason that Osobor would lead the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game then you probably would’ve thought that he was indeed going to win B1G player of the year. Instead, Osobor didn’t even make 3rd team all-conference because the Huskies were the worst team in the conference by quite a bit.
In the end, it seemed like the burden that Washington placed on Osobor was too large. He had a career high usage rate and assist rate with career lows in free throw rate and 2-point percentage. He ended up with way more steals than I expected but was completely ineffective as a shot blocker at this level. There were times Osobor lived up to his billing but the inconsistency ultimately brought down his averages below what I expected and it became very difficult for the Huskies to win unless Osobor played very well and he also got help.
In Washington wins: 15.2 pts, 9.9 reb, 3.9 ast, 3.0 to, 2.7 stl
In Washington losses: 14.4 pts, 6.7 reb, 3.1 ast, 3.5 to, 1.4 stl
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PF/C Wilhelm Breidenbach (4th year)
Projected Stats: 12.4 mins, 4.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.1 blk, 56.0/30.2/71.4% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 16.9 mins, 4.5 pts, 2.4 reb, 0.1 blk, 67.4/37.7/70.8% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“It’s clear the focal point of this Husky team is going to be Great Osobor…That might be a good thing for Breidenbach as he’s the only other one of the four bigs who are part of this preview who has shown at least some history of reliably making a three-point shot…But Breidenbach doesn’t provide the rim protection next to Osobor that you’d like and which he enjoyed playing alongside a 7-footer stretch 5 last year. That should mean that Wilhelm gets to be a part of the rotation but I’m not convinced that he is going to be getting much more than 10 minutes per game and it’s not impossible that he falls out of the rotation. Anywhere between 0-20 mpg is in play.”
The injury situations with Conway and Kepnang raised Breidenbach’s playing time above where I projected but his production on a per game basis was almost spot on. The big difference was Breidenbach was much more efficient on offense when he shot the ball but shot it less than I was expecting. If Wilhelm could just offer something on the defensive end then he would be a really nice bench player. But below average steal, block, and rebounding rates sink that dream.
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PF/C Chris Conway (5th year)
Projected Stats: 10.0 mins, 4.0 pts, 1.9 reb, 0.3 blk, 51.5/18.2/72.7% 2pt/3pt/FT%
Actual Stats: Injured, Did not Play
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“There are configurations of the rotation that could see Conway playing 10-15 minutes per game but with 13 scholarship players around, it means that at least 4 of them are likely going to fall out of the rotation by conference play and I think Conway ends up missing out and only appears in about half the games.”
We knew Conway was hurt at the time I wrote the preview but didn’t think it would be season-ending. I didn’t forecast him getting a lot of time on this roster anyways. That might change next year with Osobor and potentially Breidenbach moving on. We’ll see if he ever actually sees the court for the Huskies or if he re-enters the portal and never plays a game.
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C Franck Kepnang (5th year)
Projected Stats: 20.0 mins, 7.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.5 blk, 59.3/57.7% 2pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 20.0 mins, 6.9 pts, 5.1 reb, 1.9 blk, 53.3/80.0% 2pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“Injuries continue to be the big issue for Franck…If fully healthy then Franck is clearly one of the 3 best players on this team and would easily average 20+ minutes per game as the starting center alongside Great Osobor even if their fit on offense isn’t ideal. But unfortunately the smart money isn’t on that happening. Any moments that the Huskies have Kepnang on the floor this year have to be considered a bonus.”
Injuries were indeed the issue as Kepnang got hurt in Washington’s 2nd game and missed 2.5 months before returning to play the last 12 games of the season. There were a lot of goaltends late in the year where he seemed to be either a step slow or be missing a few inches of hop. Which shouldn’t be surprising given the giant brace he wore on his knee.
But when on the court we pretty much know exactly what to expect from Big Franck. He’s an elite shot blocker and a good rebounder who shoots ~55% from the field but doesn’t go up through contact as much as you’d like. That’s a player every coach would like to have as an option to throw out there. But with Kepnang’s injury history you can’t just assume he’ll be able to play which means finding another similar type player to keep on the roster and that can be a challenge.
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C KC Ibekwe (3rd year)
Projected Stats: 18.8 mins, 4.3 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.1 blk, 45.8/46.7% 2pt/FT%
Actual Stats: 5.8 mins, 1.6 pts, 1.1 reb, 0.3 blk, 58.3/50.0% 2pt/FT%
Max’s Preseason Quote:
“Washington only has two shot blockers on the roster right now and Franck Kepnang hasn’t been able to stay healthy. If he Franck does manage it this year then I don’t see a way for Ibekwe to see a lot of the court. In games when Kepnang isn’t available though I could easily see Ibekwe playing 15-20 minutes per game to be a rebounding/shot blocking presence whenever Osobor is off the court.
It became clear very quickly that Sprinkle did not have the confidence in Ibekwe to actually play him as the alternative to Kepnang. Ibekwe was a break glass in case of emergency 3rd big only if both Osobor and Breidenbach were in severe foul trouble. That was a little surprising to me based on how he played at Oregon State but Ibekwe fouled everything that moved and can’t shoot free throws which makes it tough to see the court.
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Players I Underrated: Zoom Diallo, Tyler Harris
Players I Overrated: DJ Davis, Great Osobor, Chris Conway*, KC Ibekwe
Players I Got Right: Tyree Ihenacho, Luis Kortright, Mekhi Mason, Jase Butler, Christian King, Wilhelm Breidenbach, Franck Kepnang
*Due to Injury
